The State of the Race
Vice-President Harris continues to poll better against President Trump than President Biden did. However, the margin is still close. As of Thursday in the Real Clear Politics polling average in battleground states, Vice-President Harris polls only 1% higher than President Trump. So far, reminiscent of Joe Biden in 2020, Vice-President Harris has largely avoided the media, opting to hold rallies instead and speak directly to voters. She has promised to do a sit-down interview by the end of the month, but critics complain that her teleprompted rallies and selective releases on social media allow her to craft her own image for voters, untested by opposition.
Meanwhile, critics of President Trump’s campaign say he is generally unfocused, with long speeches that stray from the script and delve into past grievances, from the 2020 election to deleted emails on Hillary Clinton’s private email server in 2016. As of Thursday, President Trump has brought back on some of the veteran campaign advisors from his 2016 victory, such as Corey Lewandowski, and has promised that more are coming soon. Supporters hope that these advisors will help the former President hone his message and as surrogates help him deliver it in a way convincing enough to give him the margin of support he would need to win.
Harris Lays Out Economic Plan
Vice-President Harris laid out her economic plan today in an address in North Carolina, a battleground state she hopes to win this year. The plan includes building 3 million new affordable homes by the end of her first term, giving $25,000 to first-time homebuyers for down payments, a federal ban on “price gouging” food and grocery costs, capping prescription drug costs, giving families with newborns a $6K tax credit, and eliminating medical debt for millions. She touted what she sees as the Biden-Harris administration’s success in bringing back the U.S. economy from COVID. “We all know that prices went up during the pandemic when the supply chains shut down and failed; but supply chains have improved, and prices are still too high,” Vice-President Harris said.
Critics say that while Vice-President Harris’s plan blames grocery stores for “price gouging,” the profit margin in the grocery sector right now is 1.6%. Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell wrote a blistering opinion outlining the perils of government control of free-market costs by fiat. And economic analysts suggest the plan to offer $25,000 support for first-time home buyers could lead to an unintended consequence where the $25,000 doesn't actually make homes more affordable but instead increases the baseline cost of homes by that amount or more due to increased demand. CNN's Elisabeth Buchwald argued that “the inflation Americans have had to contend with over the past few years is the product of a confluence of events that include the war in Ukraine, government spending and pandemic-related disruptions across the economy.”
Ukraine Invades Russia, and More Details Emerge from Nord Stream Pipeline Bombings
On August 6, Ukraine began a surprise incursion into Russia, in the Kursk oblast. This is the first time since the war began that Ukraine has mounted a counter-offensive into Russian territory. According to CNN, Ukraine says it has seized as much land in a week as Russia has so far this year. The Ukrainians have taken hostages that they hope to use in a bargain for peace. However, peace does not seem to be near, as Russia reportedly plots a crushing response.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal has published an article detailing the sabotage of the Russian Nord Stream pipelines. In September 2022, two Russian pipelines used to supply gas to Europe (Nord Stream 2 was ready to use but had not been used yet) saw explosions in three places. Initially, the U.S., Ukraine and Russia all denied responsibility. According to Reuters, some U.S. and European officials initially suggested Moscow had blown up its own pipelines. President Biden accused Russia and President Vladimir Putin of “pumping out disinformation and lies” regarding the sabotage of the pipeline.
As Europe investigated the pipeline sabotage only seven months into the war, the New York Times warned that “any findings that put blame on Kyiv or Ukrainian proxies could prompt a backlash in Europe and make it harder for the West to maintain a united front in support of Ukraine.”
The reporting of the Wall Street Journal is that the Ukrainians blew up the pipeline, and that the CIA and Dutch intelligence knew of the plan as early as three months beforehand. This information was withheld from the public, as the media speculated that Russia had blown up its own pipelines. The public only began to learn of the CIA’s knowledge of the sabotage in June 2023, nine months after the attack. Critics say that although the United States has denied responsibility, this latest report does not bolster confidence in transparency.
Middle-East Cease-fire Talks Resume Next Week
Mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States met in Qatar Thursday and Friday to negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza. They have provided Israel and Hamas with what they call a “bridging proposal” to close the gaps between the two parties, and they plan to convene in Cairo next week for what they hope will be a final round of talks. The announcement did not provide details about the latest proposal, but it said it builds on a deal presented by President Joe Biden in a May speech.
Israel remains braced for a retaliatory strike over their assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah officials.
Three Years After Biden Withdraws from Afghanistan, the Taliban Celebrates
The Taliban conducted a military parade at the former U.S. airbase, Bagram, showcasing a significant display of American military equipment. This included armored vehicles like Humvees, tanks, and helicopters, which were left behind during the U.S. withdrawal in 2021. This parade was seen as not just a display of military might but also as a symbolic victory lap over the U.S. and NATO forces. An official report reviewed by CNN estimates that $7 billion worth of military equipment was left behind in Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021.
Trump to be Sentenced September 18 by Judge Merchan in Hush Money Trial
As much of President Trump’s legal jeopardy has diminished, one remaining hurdle remains: 34 counts guilty in the hush money trial in New York. Prosecutors alleged that in 2016, then-candidate Trump falsified accounting records of hush money payments to an adult-film actress. Commentators such as lawyer Jonathan Turley believe that this lawsuit has enough “glaring errors” that it may not be upheld on appeal.
The sentencing in President Trump's hush money case was postponed until September 18 following the Supreme Court's ruling on presidential immunity in July. Judge Merchan has said he will rule on September 16 on whether Trump’s conviction should stand due to this new ruling from the Supreme Court. If he rules that it does, he is scheduled to sentence the former president only two days later. Trump lawyers argue that the short turnaround does not give them adequate time to pursue appeals or other legal avenues, and have requested that the sentencing be postponed until after the election.
This comes as Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH) has launched an investigation into Judge Merchan’s daughter, Loren Merchan. In 2019, Loren Merchan served as the director of digital persuasion for then-presidential candidate Harris's campaign while simultaneously serving as vice president at Authentic Campaigns, a “Chicago-based progressive political consulting firm.” During her time working on behalf of Vice President Harris, Authentic Campaigns received over $7 million in compensation for its services. Loren Merchan was then promoted to president of Authentic Campaigns and conducted work for the 2020 Biden-Harris campaign, where Authentic Campaigns allegedly made $2 million in a one-month period alone. Prior to the start of the trial, Trump’s legal team urged Judge Merchan to recuse himself from the case, but he did not.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams has publicly stated that Rikers Island, known for its harsh conditions, is prepared to house Donald Trump if he were to be sentenced to jail time. Judge Merchan has the option to delay the imposition of a sentence of prison time, possibly until Trump’s appeal is completed. An appellate court could do the same.
2.9 Billion Social Security Records Reportedly Stolen
Hacking group USDoD claims they’ve successfully stolen personal data from the company National Public Data (NPD). NPD didn’t respond to the request by the LA Times for comment, nor has it formally notified people about the alleged breach.
A supposed member of USDoD has offered “the full NPD database,” for free. The information consists of about 2.7 billion of these records, each of which includes a person’s full name, address, date of birth, Social Security number and phone number, along with alternate names and birth dates. Several news outlets that focus on cybersecurity have looked at portions of the data offered by this member of USDoD and said the information appears to be genuine.
President of Columbia University Resigns
Columbia University President Minouche Shafik resigned Wednesday after facing months of criticism of her handling of the pro-Palestinian protests on campus. Shafik was criticized for her approach to managing these protests, particularly for involving the police, which led to the arrest of around 100 students. This decision was seen by her critics as heavy-handed.
Trump’s Campaign Hacked and Campaign Office Burglarized
Politico began receiving internal Trump documents from “Robert” on July 22. “Robert” said they had a “variety of documents from [Trump’s] legal and court documents to internal campaign discussions.” When asked how they had obtained the documents, the person responded: “I suggest you don’t be curious about where I got them from. Any answer to this question, will compromise me and also legally restricts you from publishing them.”
Politico opted to hold the documents and not publish them. A couple of weeks later the Trump campaign announced it had been hacked, alleging that Iran was responsible. Then a few days later the Google Threat Analysis Group wrote that hacking group APT42, a hacking group associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, had targeted “the personal email accounts of roughly a dozen individuals affiliated with President Biden and with former President Trump.”
On August 11, a burglary occurred at a Trump campaign office in Ashburn, Virginia. The Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office identified the suspect as 39-year-old Toby Shane Kessler. Authorities have issued an arrest warrant for him. It is unclear what his motivation was to break into the Trump campaign office. “He appears to have left nothing behind, and it is still unclear what, if anything, he took with him," a sheriff's news release states.
